Sunday, 22 November 2009

Nationwide: run, baby,run !

Graham Beale, [Nationwide's] chief executive, also warned of a renewed fall in
house prices next year as more people lost their jobs and unemployment rose. -
Via FT.com

The government is hoping that the low interest rates will generate a new property bubble to take the country out of recession - at least until the next election. That is not going to happen because:

1- Britons cannot even save £200 for a new TV under the "buy now, pay later" culture, let alone saving 30k for a house deposit.

2-Nobody has 30k anyway: Britain has one of the world's highest debt-to-GDP ratios. The average Brit owes £9,191 according to Credit Action, a charity, and that excludes mortgages.

3- House prices skyrocketed until 2007 because cheap credit created bubble-jobs and illusion of wealth, not for sound fundamentals (work hard and save, wow, revolutionary).

4- Homeowners are losing their jobs, with unemployment set to reach 10pc next year. The government is trying to bail-out everybody but sooner or later it will become obvious that there is not enough money to save that many debtors. Homeowners will be forced to put their properties into the market as the only way to pay their debts. That will keep prices down.

5- Inflation is the government's favourite choice to pay for the debts by reducing the real value of money. Do not let it: get some good-old Inflation-Beating savings from NS&I and Swiss Francs. .And some Swiss chocolate.

Sunday, 15 November 2009

Peter Schiff was right... now it's time to run

Granted, Peter Schiff - a Libertarian economic guru- was right about gold in 2006. But, when everybody in your local pub and their grandma is talking about buying something, it is time to sell like it happened with Internet stocks in 2000. Gold will continue rallying as long as the US Central Bank - the Federal Reserve- feels comfortable with a weak dollar to boost exports and generates just enough inflation to reduce the real value of the 12 trillion dollars national debt.

The problem is the dollar cannot keep going down for ever and ever, with the Chinese watching how their dollar holdings become worthless. Sooner or later, Ben Bernanke - Chairman of the Federal Reserve - will be forced to say the magic words: "we prefer a strong dollar". Then it will be too late for those who are going crazy buying gold.

Thursday, 12 November 2009

Chinese democracy

The problem about lying is that one always gets caught. China can only lie as long as get-rich-quick investors and anti-West lobbyists want to believe her, like they believed Japan in the 1980s, but the truth is that a dictatorship with barely any respect for law and property trying to run an economy based on semi-slave labour cannot succeed unless it cheats the numbers. State-owned banks have been lending outrageous amounts of money to inefficient state-owned companies, in a sort of "creative accounting" to produce unreal GDP growth figures (see the excellent articles on the subject by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson) .

Government-planned economies never work, no matter how Chinese they are, and still remains the question of how a corrupt and despotic government will cope with several hundreds of millions of hungry unemployed once the bubble bursts.

Saturday, 7 November 2009

The nation's credit card

Contrary to what Labour might say, a "stimulus plan" does not solve any problems but delay them. The "car scrappage" scheme or the 15pc VAT cannot last forever because even the nation's credit card (called National Debt) has a limit. The stimulus creates a false sentiment of prosperity by printing money out of thin air - the Bank of England takes care of that- and putting devalued pounds in people's pockets to encourage them to spend. That buys time to the Government to create a new asset bubble that will create some bubble-jobs and, they hope, buy enough votes to win another election.

But sooner or later we will have to face the fact that the Government is broke and we all have to pay the credit card bill. What we need is sound economics based on low taxes, small government and a bit of common sense. Spending money we do not have in "stimulus" plans only stimulates our future ruin.

Wednesday, 21 October 2009

LPUK Conference 28th November 2009






The Annual AGM/Conference will be held at the Gladiator Room, Gloucestershire Cricket Club, Nevil Road, Bristol BS7 9EJ 10.30am- 4pm November 28th 2009


The Conference will deal with matters of policy and constitutional matters to be put forward by members via their regional coordinators, and the election of officers for 2010, plus party organisation, aims and objectives

A business meeting dealing with end of year accounts and hand over to the new NCC will be held in January.

We need to know numbers attending by November 2nd. There will be a £5 charge to defray costs on registration so please help us by registering early, and as ever Donations will be happily received.

Contact members@lpuk.org

The Sportsman Pub is nearby where I understand the usual fare can be obtained.

There is carparking available for 100 vehicles.

Directions

By Road

From the North:

Exit Junction 19 on M4 onto M32 to Bristol

Exit at Junction 2

Take the 3rd exit off the roundabout, keep in right hand lane and follow brown
tourist signs to County Ground. Continue on Muller Road for approx.1 mile.

Turn left into Ralph Road, opposite Bus Depot.

At T junction, turn left and then take first right into Kennington Avenue.
At top of road, turn left (signposted) into Nevil Road and drive through the Grace Gates into the ground.

From Central Bristol :

From St. James Barton roundabout in the City Centre, take exit marked Horfield (A38)
Continue along Stokes Croft Road and onto Gloucester Road

After approx. 1.5 miles turn right into Nevil Road (Signposted)
The Grace Gates are at the end of Nevil Road

By Rail :

Bristol Temple Meads is in the centre of Bristol, approx. 2 miles from The County Ground
Bus no. 8 or 9 will take you from the station to the bus station and then take any of the buses as below

Bristol Parkway is on the northern side of the City and approx 4 miles from The County Ground

By Bus :

The Bus Station is located in the centre of Bristol.

Outside the Bus Station from The Travel Inn, services, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76 and 77 will take you along the Gloucester Road. The stop is Nevil Road, which is within 100yds from the Ground.

Tuesday, 29 September 2009

Something To Be Really Worried About On May 6th 2010.


I listened to Radio 4 this morning, to Austin Mitchell after his fringe meeting at the Labour Party Conference yesterday. Eight people turned up at his meeting, and one of those was his wife.

I saw the empty seats, the closed off areas at Brighton

I saw the photographs of half dead, half asleep Lib Dem supporters whilst Cleggy gave his all at the Lib Dem Conference.

UKIP and BNP are in dire straits financially; the LPUK is examining the pointlessness of contesting seats at Westminster in favour of building a grass roots local authority base.

Next week I am going to be watching the glassy eyed adoration of no policies Cameron and the Conservatives.

Basically Party Politics has collapsed in this Country, dwindling party memberships, over centralisation into Westminster, the recession, the expenses scandal etc has traduced democratic politics that has taken four hundred years to build up in less than twenty years.

The Public know it’s a fix, the Public want Radical Change and a New settlement, that was evident at the Forum on Modern Liberty, but that clamour for real progress has been stymied by the big three parties, and the growth of smaller Parties and pressure groups will never have a voice under this Electoral system. The British just don't do the 'Summer of Rage'

The Public has withdrawn from even voting, because ‘the Government’ always gets in. This has produced the bizarre situation where corrupt faux aristocrats lead the Labour Party. Has it really got to the point where Mandelson is the saviour of the Socialist Left? Is there nobody left in the Labour Party that can see what a travesty this is. We have now got a situation were Esther Ranzten and a baggage handler from Glasgow, are now seen as the authentic voice of politics. Don’t get me wrong anybody who takes on somebody who is trying to explode a car bomb has physical courage, but I am not sure that I want my politics to be along the lines of ‘fisticuff’ Prescott. A man who can barely string a coherent sentence together.

Politics is dead, the only option on offer is Mandelson’s ‘post democratic’ age. This is just an Oligarchy by another name with the rest of us condemned to the role of exploited serfs.

Unless the Radical smaller Parties start to coalesce around the concept of a new constitution, a new settlement and a new voting system, we are going to see the gradual sapping of the life blood in our democratic institutions, with the Police and the EU taking up the slack and running the country by default. The Army is now a degraded institution, loved and respected by the people. Hated and kept short of funds by the political classes and sent to fight illegal wars and to occupy foreign countries, the police on the other hand seem to have no shortage of equipment and helicopters, because the political classes see them as the only thing between us and them.

I spent the weekend as a Libertarian, with a Socialist, a near BNP supporter two Tories and a Liberal Democrat. We discussed politics we all had strong points of view that we could never agree on, but we had a forum to discuss politics because we had respect for each other and ‘ground rules’ that everybody was entitled to their say. What we did agree on that this was not replicated at either National or Local level. There is no forum. If nobody is prepared to listen to my point of view, why the hell should I listen or engage to somebody who wants to talk ‘at’ me about their politics.

That is the position that the Public now have with the current political structure.
There may be only 646 of them and sixty million of us, but nobody is listening to the sixty million, only to the 646, and pretending that this the body politic.

Personally the prospect of a Cameron Government on May 6th fills me with dread, as it will not be any different to Blair/Brown.

Irrespective of each of our political standpoint, we have to fight for a New Constitution, one that comes from below not imposed from above.

Our Politics are Moribund, and worse still has absolutely no mandate from the people of this Country.